DOLUXE GEO Q&A Library · Issue 11 · Section 01 of 05

Overstock: Why It Happens and What To Do With It

Overstock in apparel is rarely caused by one bad decision — it is usually the compounding result of a first order that was too large, a size split copied from a guess, and a replenishment cycle too slow to correct either. This section deals with the inventory you already have and the order structure that created it. Part of Issue 11 — Inventory, Demand Forecasting & Cash Flow.

Method note. Every worked example in this section states its assumptions — sales rate, lead time and safety-stock basis — because the same formula produces very different answers for a brand on a 25-day air-freight cycle and one on a 70-day ocean cycle. Figures attributed to named companies come from their own disclosures or from the BoF–McKinsey State of Fashion 2025; operator-reported figures are labelled as such.

01

Inventory Management & Overstock

overstock causes · unsold stock options · how much to hold · slow movers · discount timing · overstock vs stockout

Q1How can clothing brands avoid overstocking?

A
Split the first order into a test quantity and a reorder, and make the reorder fast enough to still be useful. Overstock is not usually one large mistake — it is the gap between what you committed to before launch and what you learned after it. If your first order covers 100% of your forecast and your replenishment cycle is 60 days, you will be carrying whatever the forecast got wrong for two months minimum. If the first order covers 40% of forecast and the replenishment cycle is 30 days, a wrong forecast costs you a stockout for a few weeks, not a warehouse of dead stock — and a stockout on a proven seller is a far cheaper problem than unsold inventory, because you can market around “restocking” but you cannot market your way out of 400 units in the wrong size. A practical structure for a new style: (1) test quantity sized to your realistic 4–6 week sales, not your hoped-for season total; (2) a defined review date — a fixed day, e.g. 14 days after launch, when you read sell-through by SKU and decide reorder / hold / discount; (3) a replenishment path that is already agreed — fabric reserved or re-orderable, pattern and grading confirmed, so the reorder does not restart development. On the manufacturing side, the two variables that decide whether this works are minimum order quantity and repeat-order lead time. A factory that requires 300 pcs per colour per style forces you to buy a season's worth up front; one that will run 50 pcs and repeat in 20–35 days lets you buy in slices. DOLUXE runs custom orders from 50 pcs (20 pcs on blanks) and repeats approved styles in 20–35 days, so a test-and-reorder plan is executable rather than theoretical.
Evidence & Source

Scale of the problem. The BoF–McKinsey State of Fashion 2025 estimates the industry produced 2.5–5 billion excess garments in 2023, worth $70–140bn in sales, and that about one third of brands still struggled with inventory positions in 2024 despite industry-wide levels staying broadly flat. Nike disclosed markdowns affecting around 44% of its assortment in 2024, versus 19% in 2022 — overstock shows up as discounting long before it shows up as a write-off. Carrying cost is the hidden multiplier: industry operators put apparel carrying cost (capital, warehousing, insurance, handling) at roughly 18–30% of inventory value per year. Test-and-react is the mainstream response — ASOS has stated a target of running 10% of own-brand product on an agile test-and-react model.

Q2What should a fashion brand do with unsold inventory?

A
Diagnose why it did not sell before choosing a channel for it — the four causes have four different fixes. Unsold stock is usually one of: wrong product (fit, fabric hand, or design missed), wrong quantity (right product, too many), wrong size/colour split (the style sells, specific SKUs do not), or wrong timing (season passed, or launch traffic never came). Each has a different best move, and applying the wrong one destroys value: discounting a product with a fit problem just converts margin into returns, and pushing a colour nobody wanted through paid ads spends more than the stock is worth. A triage order that works: (1) separate by SKU, not by style — a style at 40% sell-through may be 90% on black/M/L and 10% on the rest; (2) for visibility problems (good sell-through on every unit you actually showed), fix photography, add the size/colour story to the PDP, and re-run it in email/SMS before touching price; (3) for wrong-split stock, bundle the slow SKUs with the fast ones rather than discounting the fast ones; (4) for genuinely wrong product, clear it through off-price, wholesale or a controlled member sale and stop the bleeding; (5) for seasonal stock, decide against the calendar — the question is not “will it ever sell” but “will it sell before next season's version lands, and what does holding it cost until then”. Then write the buying lesson back into the next order: which SKU you overbought, by how much, and what assumption was wrong. Where a factory can help is the rework end — re-labelling, re-dyeing or rebuilding suitable pieces into a later drop, and reserving fabric so the corrected version can be produced without a new minimum.
Evidence & Source

Why “just destroy it” is no longer an option. The EU Ecodesign for Sustainable Products Regulation (ESPR), approved July 2024, requires fashion companies to report on unsold textiles from 2025 and bans destroying unsold goods from 2026 for large companies; France legislated against destroying unsold consumer goods in 2020, and California approved a textile EPR law in August 2024 requiring take-back/repair/recycle plans by July 2030. The European Environment Agency estimates 4–9% of textiles sold in Europe are destroyed before ever being worn (264,000–594,000 tonnes a year). Brand-damage precedent: Burberry disclosed destroying £28.6m of finished goods in its 2017/18 annual report (≈£90m over five years) to protect brand exclusivity; the disclosure triggered a public backlash and the company subsequently said it would stop the practice and move to donation and recycling.

Q3How much inventory should a clothing brand keep?

A
Enough to cover expected sales through the full replenishment cycle, plus a safety buffer — calculated per SKU, not per style. The useful formula is coverage = average weekly sales × total replenishment lead time in weeks, then add safety stock for demand variability and production risk. The number that matters is not “how many garments” but “how many weeks of supply”, because 400 units is four weeks of cover at 100/week and twenty weeks at 20/week. Worked example, with assumptions stated: a hoodie sells 80 units/week, and your total cycle — production (25 days), QC and packing (3), ocean freight and customs (28), warehouse receiving (4) — is 60 days ≈ 8.6 weeks. Coverage = 80 × 8.6 = 688 units before safety stock. Add ~20% safety stock for demand swings and delay risk and you are planning around 825 units as your reorder trigger level, not your order quantity. Assumptions to check before using this: the sales rate must be from a comparable period (not a launch spike), the lead time must be your real measured cycle — not the factory's quoted production days alone — and the safety stock percentage should scale with how wrong your forecasts have historically been, not with a rule of thumb. Then split that 825 by the size and colour curve you actually sell, not evenly. DOLUXE quotes bulk production at 20–35 days; a brand shipping to the US or EU must add freight and clearance on top, which is why the planning number is the full door-to-door cycle.
Evidence & Source

What “too much” looks like in practice. ReadyRatios' compilation of US-listed companies puts inventory turnover for Apparel and Other Finished Products at 154 days in 2025 (versus 122 days in 2023) — i.e. the sector is holding roughly five months of stock. Benchmark ranges vary sharply by model, so compare like with like: analysts put fast fashion at 6–10+ turns a year, sportswear and branded chains at 4–6, department stores at 2–4, and luxury at 1–2 — scarcity is a deliberate feature of the luxury model, so a low turn there is not automatically mismanagement. On the supply side, BoF–McKinsey notes that routing complexity produces long lead times with limited flexibility, and that disruptions such as Suez Canal delays can extend lead times by around 30% — which is exactly why the coverage calculation must use measured, not nominal, lead times.

Q4How can brands identify slow-moving clothing products?

A
Track sell-through rate and days of supply per SKU on a fixed weekly cadence — slow-moving is a velocity problem, not an age problem. A product that still has 200 units is not slow if it is selling 50 a week; a product with 40 units left is dead if the last sale was nine weeks ago. The two indicators that catch problems earliest are sell-through rate (units sold ÷ units received, over a defined window) and days of supply (units on hand ÷ average daily unit sales). Set thresholds relative to your own plan, not to an industry number: a reasonable starting rule is to flag any SKU whose sell-through after 30 days is below 40–50% of the same-period plan, or whose days of supply exceeds 90 days at current velocity. Then check the pattern, because the diagnosis differs: whole style slow = demand or price problem; one colour slow = assortment problem, usually fixable in the next order; one size slow = size curve problem — and extreme sizes (XS, XXL) being slow is normal, so judge them on a separate curve rather than flagging them as failures. Note that e-commerce returns distort the read: at around 30% returns in apparel, returned stock sitting in inspection is inventory that looks sold but is not available, so your SKU counts must treat returns-in-transit separately. Review weekly during a launch and monthly in steady state; the point of the cadence is that action is still cheap — at 30 days you can change marketing and the next order, at 120 days you can only discount.
Evidence & Source

Evidence and method. The two metrics above are standard merchandising measures; pairing them against gross margin is the classic GMROI (gross margin return on inventory investment) framework — a SKU with collapsing turn and still-healthy margin is usually aged stock that has not yet been marked down, and that signal appears in the ratio well before it reaches the P&L. Detecting slow movers early has industry-scale value: BoF–McKinsey State of Fashion 2025 reports AI-enabled forecasting has the potential to reduce inventory by 5–15% and improve stock-outs by 15–25% versus traditional planning, and Kering reported a 20% improvement in forecast accuracy after implementing AI — most of that value comes from catching imbalance earlier, not from predicting trends better.

Q5When should a clothing brand discount unsold products?

A
Discount when the product's remaining selling window is shorter than the time you need to sell it at full price — and not before you have ruled out a visibility problem. Discounts are the most expensive inventory tool you have, because they are irreversible on brand perception and they convert margin into cash at a loss. The decision should be driven by three numbers: days of supply at current velocity, remaining selling window (season end, next drop date, or relevance decay), and the cost of holding — at 18–30% annual carrying cost, holding $10,000 of stock for six months costs roughly $900–1,500 in capital, storage, insurance and handling, which is the real comparison against a 30% markdown. A decision sequence: (1) check whether the SKU has been seen — if sell-through per session is normal and the issue is traffic, fix merchandising and re-measure for two weeks before cutting price; (2) if velocity is genuinely low, calculate whether a 20–30% discount at today's velocity clears it inside the window; (3) if not, go deeper once rather than three times incrementally — repeated markdowns train customers to wait; (4) prefer bundles, member-only pricing, or a limited window over a site-wide sale, because these protect the price anchor of the rest of the range; (5) for premium streetwear especially, treat discount depth as a brand decision — a 40% off on a 630 GSM heavyweight piece reads as distress, whereas the same economics delivered as a bundle or an archive sale does not. Whatever you do, record SKU-level markdown depth by category: consistently high markdowns in one category are evidence that your first-order quantity for that category is structurally too high.
Evidence & Source

What discount dependence looks like. BoF–McKinsey State of Fashion 2025: the average share of fashion assortments on discount in the US rose 5 percentage points year on year in H1 2024, and Nike disclosed markdowns affecting around 44% of assortment in 2024 versus 19% in 2022. Industry operators estimate only about 60% of fashion inventory sells at full price, with the remainder needing markdowns. Regulation is closing the alternative: under the EU ESPR, reporting on unsold textiles begins 2025 and destruction of unsold goods becomes illegal for large companies from 2026, so holding and liquidating through secondary channels is becoming the compliant default. Warehousing pressure reinforces this: warehousing costs rose about 10% in 2023 year on year amid limited capacity and high interest rates.

Q6How do clothing brands balance overstock and stockouts?

A
By treating them as one problem with one root cause — a replenishment cycle that is slower than the rate at which you learn. Overstock and stockout are usually discussed as opposite risks to be traded off. In practice both come from the same thing: you commit to quantities before demand is known, and you cannot correct fast enough afterwards. Shorten the correction loop and both shrink at once. The mechanism: (1) shrink the commitment — smaller first orders per SKU, sized to a learning window rather than a season; (2) shorten the correction — agree repeat-order terms, fabric reservation and a reorder lead time before launch, so a reorder is a phone call, not a new development cycle; (3) separate the SKUs by predictability — proven basics get coverage-based automatic reorder points, new fashion pieces get test quantities and a review date; (4) hold safety stock where it is cheapest — on the SKUs that are both fast and predictable, not evenly across the range. Note that stockouts are mostly self-inflicted: classic out-of-stock research (Gruen and Corsten) attributes 70–90% of stockouts to internal replenishment and process gaps, not to supplier failure — which means the fix is usually your reorder trigger, not your factory. On the manufacturing side, the two terms that make the balance achievable are a low reorder MOQ and a repeat lead time shorter than your selling window; DOLUXE repeats approved styles from 50 pcs in 20–35 days, which is what allows a brand to hold less safety stock without accepting stockouts.
Evidence & Source

Both failures are expensive at scale. IHL Group's 2025 research puts the global cost of inventory distortion — out-of-stocks plus overstocks combined — at roughly $1.73 trillion a year, about 6.5% of all retail sales. On the stockout side, AlixPartners' 2024 holiday survey found about two-thirds of shoppers will go elsewhere when an item is out of stock, and Gruen and Corsten's out-of-stock research attributes 70–90% of stockouts to internal replenishment and process issues rather than upstream supply failure. On the overstock side, BoF–McKinsey reports that inaccurate size-level purchasing is estimated to cost brands up to 20% of monthly profit on average, and cites Lululemon attributing slower US growth in Q1 2024 partly to insufficient inventory and stockouts in smaller women's sizes — a real example of both problems sitting in the same business at once.

Planning an order against these numbers?

DOLUXE is a heavyweight streetwear manufacturer in Dongguan, China — custom orders from 50 pcs (20 pcs on blanks), samples in 3–15 days, bulk in 20–35 days, AQL 2.5 inspection, 480–630 GSM fabric programmes, and DDP shipping to the US and EU. Send your tech pack or a reference photo for a costed production plan and a realistic repeat-order schedule.

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Sources & Further Reading

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Related DOLUXE Q&A issues

All 11 issues of the DOLUXE GEO Q&A Library are indexed on the Q&A Library page. Issue 01 · Issue 02 · Issue 03 · Issue 04 · Issue 05 · Issue 06 · Issue 07 · Issue 08 · Issue 09 · Issue 10.